1 College Football Playoff Betting Action Report: 'All the Cash is Can Be Found In On Texas'

Del Torpy edited this page 2025-01-04 10:25:51 -05:00

The college football world was expecting a March Madness type of feel for the first-ever 12-team College Football Playoff, with upsets galore. Instead, the 4 first-round matchups underwhelmed, offering a lot of time for holiday shopping. Favorites went a best 4-0 versus the spread, including three relatively non-competitive efficiencies by underdogs Indiana, SMU and . Sportsbooks and the general public do not seem to believe so. A minimum of in 2 cases.
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Both Penn State-Boise State and Texas-Arizona State function double-digit spreads favoring the lower-seeded Nittany Lions and Longhorns. And the latter has been an especially popular choice with the general public. The Longhorns -12.5 is the most-bet side at BetMGM nationally in regards to overall dollars as of Monday afternoon.
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"All the cash is can be found in on Texas," Seamus Magee, a BetMGM trader, composed in a text message to The Athletic. "We require Arizona State to cover +13.5."

The enthusiasm for the Longhorns extends to the futures market also. Remember that massive $1.5 million wager on Texas to win all of it at +390 chances? The ticket is still out there at Caesars Sportsbook.

Interestingly, the Longhorns' challenger, Arizona State - the biggest underdog among the College Football quarterfinal matches - is getting the most like from sharp wagerers. The Athletic spoke with a number of bookies who had actually taken sharp action on No. 4 Arizona State - which had actually gotten as high as a 14-point underdog at some books against No. 5 Texas - to push the line down to -12.5 or -12.

John Murray, the executive director at The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, informed us he received a wager on Arizona State +13.5 from a "extremely highly regarded player."

Despite the fact that respected cash has can be found in on Arizona State to cover, sportsbooks will likely require the Sun Devils to do just that, as public wagerers are overdoing Texas.

"We would like to see ASU cover, and after that Texas win the video game, so we get our Arizona State liability off the futures book," Magee added.

While the Texas video game will be big for the books, it isn't the only video game in town. We talked with several bookies to break down where the wagering action is on the other 3 College Football quarterfinal matches. 6 Penn State (-11, 53) at No. 3 Boise State

This game opened Penn State -10.5 at a lot of sportsbooks and has actually approached slightly to an agreement of -11. sports betting on the spread is relatively divided at many sportsbooks. The total dollars wagered differs by book, as 52% of bets and 79% of the money at BetMGM nationally are on Boise State -11, while 56% of bets but only 42% of the cash at DraftKings is on Boise State -11.5. Penn State to cover is presently the 2nd most popular CFP wager in regards to overall tickets at BetMGM books.

"We opened Penn State -10.5 and are resting on Penn State -11," Thomas Gable, sportsbook director at The Borgata in Atlantic City, told The Athletic. "I would not be surprised if this line approaches a little bit more before kickoff, however I currently invite any Boise State cash."

Ohio State got the Oregon second possibility it wanted. Are the Buckeyes prepared for vengeance?

No. 8 Ohio State (-2.5, 55.5) vs. No. 1 Oregon

Perhaps most unexpected to the public is that No. 1 seed Oregon is an underdog versus No. 8 Ohio State. These teams fulfilled back on Oct. 7 in Eugene, and Oregon won 32-31 as a 3.5-point home pet.

So why is OSU favored?

Several oddsmakers The Athletic consulted with before the CFP first round had Ohio State atop their power rankings, and the lookahead lines for this theoretical matchup were Ohio State -1 or -1.5. One oddsmaker mentioned that Ohio State playing up to its power ranking in its dominant first-round win over Tennessee also formed his opening line.

Ohio State opened as a 1- or 1.5-point preferred (depending upon the sportsbook) in this game before highly regarded cash pressed it to the existing line of -2.5. A a little higher majority of wagers at several sportsbooks, roughly 60%, are on the Ducks to cover, while near 60% of the cash has can be found in on the Buckeyes. This will likely be the highest-handle video game of the four come kickoff.

"We did take some reputable cash at -1.5, rapidly went to -2.5 where it's stayed," Gable said. "It's decent two-way action at that number today. The overall has actually gone up three points from 52.5 to 55.5, which has been the most significant move of any of the overalls. Money has actually all been on the over so far.

Joe Brennan, the CEO of Prime sports betting, a sportsbook in Ohio and New Jersey that accommodates sharp wagerers, told The Athletic that "Ohio State opened as a 1-point favorite, and instantly our Ohio wagerers believed we were too low. Our opening cost of Ohio State -1 has actually been driven up to -2.5 and the total from 52 to 55."

He did note, though, that the book had actually seen considerable buyback at the current line of Ohio State -2.5 and that 52% of the total dollars at his book were taking the points with the Ducks.

GO DEEPER

The most likely upsets for the College Football Playoff's 2nd round

No. 7 Notre Dame vs. No. 2 Georgia (-1, 45)

The preferred turned in this video game, as Notre Dame opened a 1.5-point preferred and is presently a 1- or 1.5-point underdog at sportsbooks.

What triggered the line turn? Simply put, the wagering action.

Although Georgia's beginning QB Carson Beck is out for the season and has actually been replaced by relative unknown Gunner Stockton, bettors are gravitating towards the Bulldogs.

Georgia to cover is the most popular versus the spread wager at BetMGM books nationally in terms of ticket count (second-most popular by overall dollars wagered), and it has actually been "one-way traffic on Georgia," according to Magee. Nearly 70% of bets are on the Bulldogs at numerous sportsbooks.
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